8 Jul · 13:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1558
FormLWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Brozek
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1640
FormWWLLW
43%
57%
🌟Brozek covers set handicap as favourite 69% (16)
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H12-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-9)