8 Jul · 14:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1558
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Langer
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1511
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Langer
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H20-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.