8 Jul · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Mateusz Burkacki
ELO 1527
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stapor
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1563
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.