8 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1516
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Fitl
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1546
FormWLWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Fitl
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 40% · 2.47· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.