8 Jul · 17:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1445
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Filipek
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1434
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Kral covers set handicap as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H34-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.