8 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BG
🇨🇿Blazej Gola
ELO 1500
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zapala
KZ
🇨🇿Krzysztof Zapala
ELO 1524
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Zapala
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H36-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.