8 Jul · 21:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Volny
ELO 1450
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Branny
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1464
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Branny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.