9 Jul · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1708
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vesecky
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1734
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🌟Cerny stays under total as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H62-68
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.