9 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1613
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Galus
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1564
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Galus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H35-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.