9 Jul · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1553
FormLLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Krenek
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1553
FormWLWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Krenek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+0
H2H18-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.