9 Jul · 20:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1652
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sarganek
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1632
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H10-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.