9 Jul · 22:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1422
FormWLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Nemec
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kolbusovsky
ELO 1315
FormLLLLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolbusovsky🌟Nemec goes over total as favourite 72% (18)
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+107
H2H30-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+107)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-19)