9 Jul · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Marek Dlask
ELO 1446
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dlask
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1422
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Dlask
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H18-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.