9 Jul · 22:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1632
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gembala
RK
🇨🇿Rene Kowal
ELO 1587
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.