10 Jul · 12:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1523
FormLWLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kocab
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1623
FormWLLLW
42%
58%
🌟Kocab stays under total as favourite 67% (18)
Fair odds · Kocab
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+100
H2H18-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+100)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-12)