10 Jul · 10:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1501
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Beran
DS
🇨🇿David Sochor
ELO 1491
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Beran
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H4-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.