10 Jul · 08:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1457
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Beran
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1501
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Beran
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.