10 Jul · 12:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1498
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Muller
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1498
FormLWLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Muller
Fair odds · Muller
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+0
H2H24-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.