10 Jul · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1437
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lysek
ZC
🇨🇿Zdenek Chovancik
ELO 1411
FormWWLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.