10 Jul · 12:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1473
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sturma
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1452
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lysek🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 19% (16)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H20-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.