10 Jul · 13:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1515
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jr
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1479
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H48-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.