10 Jul · 17:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BM
🇨🇿Borek Moravec
ELO 1647
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Moravec
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1633
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H9-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.