11 Jul · 14:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1525
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1558
FormWWWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H6-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.