11 Jul · 11:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PR
🇨🇿Pavel Rissky
ELO 1513
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Langer
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1528
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Langer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.