11 Jul · 18:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1446
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1470
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 82% (40)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 28% · 3.62· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H22-48
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.