11 Jul · 20:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OV
🇨🇿Oldrich Vaclahovsky
ELO 1409
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chlad
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1433
FormLLWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vaclahovsky🌟Chlad rarely covers set handicap as favourite 15% (13)
Fair odds · Chlad
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.