11 Jul · 21:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kolbusovsky
ELO 1309
FormLLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Nemec
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1419
FormWWLLW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolbusovsky🌟Nemec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (74)
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+110
H2H32-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+110)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-19)