11 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1439
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1470
FormWLWWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 82% (40)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H35-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.