11 Jul · 19:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WA
🇨🇿Wiekiera Arkadiusz
ELO 1517
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kos
KK
🇨🇿Kamil Kos
ELO 1525
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kos
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H11-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.