12 Jul · 09:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1527
FormWLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sulc
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1530
FormLWLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H26-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.