12 Jul · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1441
FormLLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sykora
DS
🇨🇿David Sykora
ELO 1555
FormWLLWW
41%
59%
🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 68% (107)
Fair odds · Sykora
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+114
H2H28-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+114)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-9)