12 Jul · 10:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1527
FormWLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Langer
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1462
FormWWWLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Langer
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H10-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-7)