12 Jul · 10:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1530
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sulc
DS
🇨🇿David Sochor
ELO 1493
FormLWLWL
53%
47%
🌟Sochor goes over total as underdog 67% (21)
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.