12 Jul · 10:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1441
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Ogrocki
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1444
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 47% · 2.13· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H6-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.