12 Jul · 10:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇨🇿Jonas Rak
ELO 1523
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rak
AV
🇨🇿Adam Vitasek
ELO 1514
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Rak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.