12 Jul · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1589
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Trnka
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1620
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Trnka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.