12 Jul · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WA
🇨🇿Wiekiera Arkadiusz
ELO 1509
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Arkadiusz
JK
🇨🇿Jakub Komorowicz
ELO 1456
FormLLLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Arkadiusz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H35-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.