12 Jul · 12:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1533
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Raska
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1528
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
🌟Raska rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (16)
Fair odds · Raska
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.