12 Jul · 17:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1570
FormWWLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Dohnal
BB
🇨🇿Bohuslav Budik
ELO 1497
FormWLLLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Budik🌟Budik covers set handicap as underdog 82% (61)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+73
H2H31-28
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-28)