12 Jul · 21:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1616
FormWWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Krupnik
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Slavik
ELO 1536
FormLLWLW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Slavik🌟Slavik covers set handicap as underdog 79% (14)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+80
H2H5-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-3)