12 Jul · 21:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1504
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Knazik
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1513
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 66% (67)
Fair odds · Knazik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H40-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.