12 Jul · 18:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vodal
ELO 1560
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vodal
BB
🇨🇿Bohuslav Budik
ELO 1497
FormWLLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Budik🌟Budik covers set handicap as underdog 82% (61)
Fair odds · Vodal
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H11-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-8)