12 Jul · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Fojtik
ELO 1494
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Slavik
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Slavik
ELO 1536
FormLLWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fojtik🌟Slavik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 15% (20)
Fair odds · Slavik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.