12 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DB
🇨🇿David Bochnak
ELO 1687
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Bochnak
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1675
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Cerny stays under total as underdog 65% (69)
Fair odds · Bochnak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H53-51
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.