12 Jul · 17:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DB
🇨🇿David Bochnak
ELO 1687
FormWLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Vesecky
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1757
FormWWWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H19-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-18)