12 Jul · 13:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FS
🇨🇿Filip Sikora
ELO 1635
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sikora
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1619
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Niezgoda🌟Sikora rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (29)
Fair odds · Sikora
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H25-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.