12 Jul · 22:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1485
FormLWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sebl
JS
🇨🇿Jachym Sebl
ELO 1488
FormWWWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Sebl
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H21-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.