12 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1506
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dzida
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1467
FormWLWWL
53%
47%
🌟Zeman stays under total as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Dzida
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.