12 Jul · 19:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1624
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skvrna
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1603
FormWLWWW
52%
48%
🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (61)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H16-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.