13 Jul · 12:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1545
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Beran
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1538
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Beran rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (17)
Fair odds · Beran
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.